"Israel-Turkey Relations: New Challenges"

100 people, mostly over 50 years of age, came to Stephen Wise Synagogue on the upper west side to hear former ambassador of Israel to Turkey from 1998-2001, Uri Bar-Ner, speak. The former ambassador referred to himself as "an optimist" and his talk reflected that self-identification. Bar-Ner began his discussion of Turkish-Israeli relations by reminding the audience of three historical facts:

1) Turkey was a haven to Jews after the 1492 expulsion from Spain.
2) It deported no Jews during World War II.
3) It was one of the first countries to recognize Israel in 1948.

Since the Madrid Conference in 1991, military relations between Turkey and Israel have strengthened. Turkey has provided air space for long-range aerial exercises, a luxury Israel does not possess at home. The military relationship also affected Israel's relations with the Kurds. "We stopped helping the Kurds in northern Iraq because of Turkey," reported Bar-Ner. In addition to military ties, relations extend into the American political scene, where American Jewry has prevented passage of bills in the American Congress calling the genocide of Armenians in 1914-5 a genocide. Economically, the relationship has also developed. Trade has grown from $600 million in 1998 to $3.5 billion today.

In terms of the present-day relations, 500,000 Israelis visited Turkey two years ago, and the number is near that figure this year after a slight fall off. That number is second only to Germany. Of course, the ascendance of Erdogan since 2002 has had a deleterious impact on Israel-Turkish relations. Not surprisingly, the American Jewish leadership has soured on Erdogan and would not meet with him last December when he was in the United States. Bar-Ner accredited Erdogan's rise to two factors:

1) His election was a protest vote against the corruption of the present government.
2) The EU has repeatedly rejected Turkey's entrance into the EU.

In fact, in 2001, a high level EU official said that the EU wouldn't accept Turkey because, "We want to keep the EU a Christian club." When asked during the Q&A whether any people or countries were supportive of Turkey's entrance into the EU, Bar-Ner replied, "No. And the most vigorous opponents are Sarkozy and Merkel."

Currently, Erdogan's party holds 330 of 550 seats in the Parliament. Turkey will hold an election next year. At present, support for Erdogan's party is down from 47% to 30%. The two opposition parties combine for 50%.