Sunday, March 15, 2009

A Dismissive Account

"Allies' Clocks Tick Differently on Iran"; By David E. Sanger and William J. Broad; WK 1, 4

William J Broad's article in the Week in Review depicts Israel as panicky and overreactive and the United States as a kind of Cool Hand Luke.

This view is fed by Adm. Dennis Blair, the new director of national intelligence in the Obama administration, who said before a Congressional committee last week that Israelis "take more of a worst-case approach to these things." Picking up on Blair's point, Broad states, "The nuclear-threat clock ticks a lot faster in Jerusalem than in Washington."

Later on, he writes that Israelis "draw...a dire scenario" about Iran's ability to produce a nuclear weapon. 

Broad's account is replete with ranges. Iran could enrich enough uranium for a bomb in two to three months, say some experts. Others "put the figure between 9 and 36 months." Others still say that Iran won't have enough until 2015. 

Two weakness stand out in Broad's article. First, he states that both American and Israeli officials spoke out last week in response to a United Nations' report on Iran's progress toward nuclear capability, but Israel likely has internal reports through its own intelligence off of which it bases its view. 

Secondly, Broad neglects to mention Israel's history of success in identifying potential nuclear threats before the international community is even aware of them, namely the Osirak reactor in Iraq and a recently bombed reactor site in Syria. In short, Israeli intelligence has proven to be reliable. 

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